Ceebee Punchestown Day 3 Preview and Best Bets

Ceebee previews Thursday at Punchestown and he has bets including Bacardys, Killiney Court and Josies Orders.

3.40 2m Handicap Hurdle

Just like Wednesday it’s a very tricky start. One small play for me on Killiney Court. He’s rated 132 over fences and races off 111 here over hurdles. It’s that simple. He’s been rancid on his last few starts, the yard aren’t firing great but hell he’s chucked in here if near his best.

Perhaps he just needed a break and he’s had 7mts off. Decent ground looks like it’ll be in his favour also and the 7lbs coming off his back in the shape of Daniel Holden is a decent claimer.

Advised Bet:

1pt win Killiney Court at 20/1 with BetVictor

4.15 2m Handicap Chase

A little more to go on here in a better standard race but still a tough puzzle to solve.

Speredek has done most of his winning in smaller fields. He’ll have plenty of company on the front end here. The race should be run to suit the in-form Bon Papa. He’s had a light enough season and the yard are obviously flying but we must remember this lad is a hound. Tycoon Prince is capable but I’d rather he hadn’t gone to Fairyhouse. Powersbomb I’m a big fan of but wish he had a prep run.

Eight till Late has been in the first 3 (won twice) on his last 7 chase starts. A very solid type, he’ll have come on for a flat run on Monday after 4mts off. Decent ground is the key to him. An exposed looking older horse he won’t be popular but the form is there. Would be a great result at a big meeting in the season we lost Peter Casey.

Tisamystery looks overpriced at 20/1. He won a very similar race (good quality 2m hcap chase) at Leopardstown at Christmas and the form has worked out well since. A repeat performance off 7lbs higher will be good enough.

American Tom is a weak stayer so it’s no surprise his sole chase victory has come at Punchestown on decent ground. He’s gets those conditions again and with the yard flying he’s worth a small win only play. He has dropped 6lbs for his last few starts despite racing against decent opposition and over a trip too far once.

Advised Bets:

0.75pt e/w Eight till Late 40/1 with BetVictor

1pt win American Tom 16/1 – Ladbrokes

0.5pt e/w Tisamystery 20/1 with BetVictor

4.50 La Touche Cup 4m1f Cross Country

A below average renewal and a hard race to get a handle on. I want to be against Bless the Wings as the 13yr old has been to Cheltenham, Aintree and Fairyhouse. He’s also been poor at the last two Punchestown Festivals. Auvergnat would have to be some beast to give a stone to a few of these. He’s not. Just Wait and See was a fortunate winner on Tuesday as the runner up wouldn’t go by. They turn to blinkers for Cantlow, he could be done.

Josies Orders is the selection. He has won and twice been beaten a short head in three starts around the 3m version of this track. He’s also 3 from 5 at the Cheltenham version. Recent form is a little off but gets a big swing in the weights here which should she him overturn December form with Bless the Wings and February form with Auvergnat. Nina knows the way home.

Advised Bet:

4pts win Josies Orders at 11/4 with BetVictor

5.30 Stayers Hurdle

I’ll be brief. 12mts ago Bacardys beat Finians Oscar (coming off Aintree win) in a G1, clear of Death Duty and Let’s Dance. Whilst Penhill was beaten by Champagne Classic as Tin Soldier finished just behind. I know which piece of form I prefer.

Happy to ignore the stayers hurdle, it was a sprint and Penhill is an ex decent flat horse. His previous best was an Albert Bartlett where neither Monalee or Wholestone got home. Overrated. Stablemate beats him. Patrick is doing a fine job in the big G1s this week so far.

Advised Bet:

2pts e/w Bacardys at 7/2 with Bet365 (1/4 odds first 3)

 

6.05 3m Handicap Hurdle

Again I could easily make a case for a half dozen of them.

Folsom Blue looks rock solid having nearly won the Irish National from a stone higher mark. Glenloe and A Great View ran well in the Pertemps and that form got a fine boost by Delta Work. I fear the latter won’t like this track and ground combo as he can get behind in his races.

Dadsintrouble at 40/1 is the each-way selection. I fancied him for the Pertemps but the spring ground never arrived in Cheltenham. Now he doesn’t truly get it here either but he might get away with it. He races off 132; the last time he encountered good ground he was 3rd in a similar hot 3m handicap hurdle off 136 at Aintree. It’s a while back which explains the 40/1 but he’s worth a small play. Ignore his chasing efforts, the ground was rotten at Cheltenham and his Exeter run wasn’t bad. All of a sudden 40/1 seems ok.

Advised Bet:

0.5pt e/w Dadsintrouble  at 40/1 with BetVictor

6.40 Ryanair Novice Chase 2m G1

Footpad wins but I’ll be looking to back him on the under winning distance markets. He was good at Cheltenham, obviously, but remember he only had Brain Power to beat after some clueless rides on the other two. There’ll be no 14L stroll here. Based on Leopardstown the time before you’d suggest Petit Mouchoir will keep it to a respectable 5 or 6L.

Advised Bet:

4pts win Footpad 7/4 up to and incl 6L – PaddyPower (not sure who else has this market up)

Mares’ Novice Hurdle and a Bumper, nah.

Twitter