Brazilian Grand Prix – Total finishers looks a solid overs bet

Roy The Boy previews the Brazil Grand Prix and he likes the 7/2 quoted by Bet365 on over 20 finishers in a race that does not take its toll on cars.

Brazil Best Played By the Formbook

There are only two races of the 2016 Formula 1 season remaining, thank God!   The first is this weekend in Brazil.

The Brazilian circuit is exceptionally short, just a 4.3km lap, but it also has a very long flat-out section of 1,220m.  It means there is no real prospect of an inferior car holing a faster rival at bay for more than a single lap.

With brake and tyre-wear low, and with the race always staged at the end of the season, reliability issues are rare.  The result is three-fold:

  • Finishing numbers have been high in recent years.
  • Eleven of the last 12 race winners have started from the front row.
  • The Fastest Lap invariably goes to superior cars.

In fact, with nine of the last ten ‘Fastest Laps’ having gone to the race winner, or their teammate, this looks like one of the strongest fancies this weekend.  It will be Rosberg’s who started on pole and won here in both in 2014 and 2015, or Hamilton’s who finished second in both those races and set the fastest lap in both.

But the prices (supported by stats) say the better betting value is the number of finishers being 20.5+

21 of the 22 starters ‘completed’ in Mexico last week and all 22 drivers were classified in Japan, three races back. More importantly there has been just one non-finisher in this race for the past two years (since the new regulations came into place).

Recommended Bet

Total finishers:           20.5+  at 7/2 with Bet365

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