Blog – Spanish Grand Prix, SPOTY, Giro & Epsom Derby & Oaks

Roy The Boy is having a very good run of things recently and his blog this week has bets on Kimmi Raikkonen for fastest lap in Spanish Grand Prix and Chris Froome for SPOTY.

The Lads did good with Laddies Poker Two

I’m spitting feathers over missing the winner of the 1000 Guineas.  I won handsomely on the race having laid the favourite, Rhododendron, thinking her pedigree was too stamina-laden for the one-mile race.  But somehow I failed to look at the pedigree of the winner, Winter.

She is out of Laddies Poker Two, better known for landing a huge touch in the Wokingham a few years back.  I know her better as the horse which was owned by a bunch of honest hard working recreational online poker players who saw her sold cheaply in an obscure auction as a lame retired horse.

In time Laddies Poker Two, who was managed by Ladbrokes’ Mike Dillon during her time as a syndicated horse, somehow found herself in the ownership of John Magnier, Michael Tabor and former Ladbrokes employee Derrick Smith.  And, not only did she recover from supposed career ending injury to win at Royal Ascot, she is now one of the most valuable brood mares in the world.

Will the 1000 favourite bloom in Oaks?

Anyway, Rhododendron looks to have Oaks written all over her but she is surely no value at her top-price of 5/2.  Minding may have won last year’s Oaks at 10/11 but the Oaks has not been a great race for favourites in recent years.  They were just two-from-ten in the last decade.

Oaks Previous Winners 

2016   Minding                     AP O’Brien                10/11

2015   Qualify                       AP O’Brien                50/1

2014   Taghrooda                 J Gosden                   5/1

2013   Talent                         R Beckett                   20/1

2012   Was                            AP O’Brien                20/1

2011   Dancing Rain           W Haggis                   20/1

2010   Snow Fairy                E Dunlop                   9/1

2009   Sariska                       M Bell                         9/4F

2008   Look Here                  R Beckett                   33/1

2007   Light Shift                  H Cecil                       25/1

Can a big ‘un win the Derby?

Churchill winning the 2000 Guineas boosted the coffers.  He left me very underwhelmed though and who knows where he is heading next.  I doubt it’s the Epsom Derby which is a race where fancied runners often prevail.  It has been 19 years now since a Derby winner has started at an SP of 8/1 or greater.

Getting to grips with Greipel

It’s not all been a bed of roses.  I lumped on Andre Greipel to win the opening stage of the Giro d’Italia and, despite him being what I consider to be an unfortunate loser on that occasion, I did not see my judgement through by backing him for the second stage – which he duly won impressively.

The Giro had an off day on Monday (after just three days of racing?) but the cyclists have six solid days of racing this week.  The thing will not truly unravel until week three however when the field hit the mountains.  And so, while it is nice to see Nibali now trading at 9/2, there’s no rush or panic to back him or any of your fancies.

I see Chris Froome can be backed at 50/1 for ‘Sports Personality of the Year’ incidentally.  The cyclist is going for his fourth Tour de France title this year.  Clearly victory in that will not be enough to see him challenge Anthony Joshua for the accolade, but the presence of that contestant (at 2/5) makes this a knocking each-way market – the firms are going a remarkable three placed 1/5th odds.

Another Fastest Lap for Kimmi?

It’s the Spanish Grand Prix this weekend.  It’s not my favourite race with overtaking extremely difficult and pole-setters invariably winning here:  11 from 14 in fact.  The way this season is going there is only three drivers than can be expected to win here:  Bottas, Vettel and Hamilton.  This trio have collected all the pole positions and race wins so far this season.

However, race winners never set the fastest lap of this race (they have not in the last eight years anyway) and given Kimi Raikkonen has not won a race in his last 79 starts I’m opting for him to get the fastest lap this weekend!

Let me quantify that a little better:  The Finnish driver is driving one of the four fastest cars on the starting grid and its neigh impossible to see any other car claiming the fastest lap accolade.  Given he is unlikely to win and he has also set the fastest lap in two of this season’s four completed races he looks well worth a punt at Skybet's 11/2.

Recommended Bets

Chris Froome            Sports Personality of the Year       (each-way)  at 50/1 with Coral

Kimmi Raikkonen       Fastest Lap Spanish Grand Prix at 11/2 with Skybet