Blog fro Roy The Boy which looks at the Premier League Darts, Cheltenham Offers and Sweden and Australia's chances in the Eurovision.
Returning from an Injury or Marital, MVG’s no 1/5 poke
Another forgettable and regrettable week of punting has come and gone. I confess it’s been my worst in a long time. The total 180’s on the Premier League Darts kicked off a dreadful spell.
That saw the Gods conspire against me as Dave Chisnall, the best 180 scorer of them all, was drafted in to play twice at the 11th hour. The writing was on the wall thereafter albeit his two appearances did not doom my bet, it was already as good as done when he stepped out to play his second game of the night.
Chisnall played twice in the absence of Michael van Gerwen who also missed the UK Open at the weekend. The Dutchman was reportedly suffering from a back injury. I’m not so certain that is true, it may just be a domestic/marital which has kept him out of action for a week.
Whatever the case it’s not ideal preparation for this Thursday’s game against Kim Huybrechts and therein MVG is surely a massive ‘lay’ proposition at Betfair’s Exchange’s line of 1.23? His record in the 2017 Premier League is two wins and two draws from four games after all.
7/1 Cannot be Wright
And sticking with Darts… Peter Wright was in unbelievable form last week posting a 119.5 3-dart average which is the second highest average in televised darts history. He proceeded to win the Coral UK Open at the weekend averaging out at 101 for the entire tournament.
This victory was Wright’s first ever success in a TV ‘major’ and given he had lost his previous eight such appearances, there is every reason to believe he will now go on to go on to win a few of them.
7/1 is available about him claiming the Premier League title outright and I not only think it is colossal value, I’d be amazed if it does not quickly evaporate making it an essential ‘bet-to-lay’ investment.
Sweden’s Turn to get Smashed-Up in Eurovision’s Outright Market
Bet365 and William Hill have markets open on this weekend’s final of Melodifestivalen. This is the sixth and concluding part of a live TV series which chooses the act which will represent Sweden in the Eurovision Song Contest.
‘Nano’ and ‘Wiktoria’ have been given the best slots in Saturday’s running order appearing ninth and tenth, but the firms and punters are on to this and they are going 6/4 and 7/4 about these acts respectively.
At this juncture I’d say the only real play is to back Sweden ‘outright’ for the Eurovision at Betfred’s 13/2. They are sure to shorten dramatically following the Saturday night’s Melodifestivalen – given the weight of money that is certain to follow – and while they are no good things, you will have some semblance of ‘value’.
Meanwhile I also like Australia’s entry which was chosen last weekend. Isaiah Firebrace will represent his country singing “Don’t Come Easy”. He is just 17 and won last year’s X-Factor competition.
Australia has proven a hit with Eurovision fans finishing fifth and second in their two appearances (2015 & 2016) and this kid, who looks like a Spanish Liv Tyler, will surely match if not better those results with a song which seems made for a new-age love-ballad radio audience.
We Heard You Paddy!
Paddy Power are refunding stakes (as a free bet with stakes not paid out in free bet winnings – which means they are not actually refunding stakes by definition) on 20 runner-ups during the 24 race 2017 Cheltenham Festival.
They have marketed the bejaysus out of this offer on Irish TV while failing to mention the offer is not open to shop customers in the country. Other notable T&C’s state the maximum refund per-race per-customer is a single €/£20 free bet.
More worryingly for me, when I recently contacted one of their online chat agents, I was told the advert is erroneous and the concession is only applicable if your horse finishes second to a winning favourite. As the way these things work I’ve been unable to get any subsequently clarity on the matter, so tread carefully.
SkyBet’s big Cheltenham carrot is a lot easier to understand. It too is a maximum £/€20 free bet refund on the first losing bet you place on the opening race each day of the Festival.
Naturally SkyBet sponsor the Festival’s curtain raiser, the SkyBet Supreme Novice Hurdle. A trawl through the stats show short-priced runners fare exceptionally well in this and all opening races. Therein I’d recommend placing a €/£20 bet on a ‘short one’ with them on the opening race every day: Last year the second favourite, Altior, beat the favourite, Min, in the SKYBet Supreme Novice Hurdle. The opening race on Day 2, the Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle also saw a second favourite, Yorkhill, beat the favourite, Yanworth. Day 3 began with joint-favourites finishing first and second and 2016’s Day 4 opening race was won by a favourite, Ivanovich Gorbatov.
Lay MVG against Kim Huybrechts (Premier League Darts) 1.23 Betfair
Peter Wright to win the Premier League outright 7/1 Hills & Coral
Back Sweden to win Eurovision outright 13/2 Betfred
Back Australia to win Eurovision outright 12/1 Ladbrokes