Blog – Oscars, The Jump and Pats v Broncos

Roy The Boy weekly blog looks at bets in Best Director category in Oscars, Linford Christie for Channel 4's The Jump and the Broncos to beat the Patriots in the NFL. He also looks at Greyhound Derby and Skiing from Kitzbuel.

Globe loss can see the Oscar on fall on Spotlight

The Oscar nominations are in and, following her receipt of the Golden Globe for Best Actress at the start of the month, our 4/6 slips about Brie Larson to win the corresponding Best Actress Oscar are looking gilt-edged.

Larson is now a top-priced 2/7 (with BetVictor) which is fully justified when you consider every Golden Globe Best Actress recipient since 2008, baring one, has gone on to claim its Oscar counterpart.

‘Spotlight’ is another long-range recommendation of ours, this time for the Best Film Oscar.  It actually failed to collect the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture, but it does remain a 5/6 poke for the Academy Award equivalent.

That’s a form-line which actually helps our cause, as only three of the last ten Golden Globe Best Motion Picture winners went on to take the Best Picture award at the Oscars.  Last year ‘Boyhood’, the 2015 Golden Globe winner for Best Motion Picture, was turned-over at odds of 1/10 for its Oscar counterpart.

Whilst still amazed Ridley Scott (The Martian) has not made the short-list for the Best Director category at the Oscars – he was 7/2 to win it after all – I’m also surprised Paddy Power are offering 11/2 about George Miller in this market/category.

Miller has directed all the Mad Max films dating back 27 years and in 2015 he successfully resurrected the series with ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ which has cleared $125m in profits at the box office and already won countless ‘Best Director’ awards and accolades.

But this is an Oscar which is often given to people for career recognition as opposed to the actual film they have been nominated for.  Given Miller is now 70 and his diverse list of films include The Witches of Eastwick, Babe and Happy Feet, I think he may well handed the Best Director Oscar on February 28th and he is certainly value at 5/1 with 888Sport & Unibet

There’s a Sportsman on the Slopes

At long last Channel 4’s The Jump is almost upon us.  This particular gameshow is novel for a few reasons.  Firstly it is not decided by the opinions of a phone voting public, secondly it is staged on the ski slopes, ice rinks, bobsleigh, luge course and ski jumps of the Austrian Alps.

Call me old-fashioned, but when it comes to sport I like to back sportsmen and therefore when the line-up for the show was announced the name Linford Christie ‘jumped’ out at me.

Formerly the fastest man on earth, Christie’s rivals include 40-year-old EastEnders actor Sid Owen, former co-star Louisa Lytton, 26, Girls Aloud singer Sarah Harding, 34, Westlife’s Brian McFadden, 35, Society girl Tamara Beckwith, 45, TOWIE’s James ‘Arg’ Argent, 28 and Made In Chelsea’s Mark Francis, 26.

Admittedly there are two other contestants who could be accused of being sportspeople of sorts, gymnast Beth Tweddle, 30, who owns an Olympic bronze medal for gymnastics and swimmer Rebecca Adlington, 26.

But, in any sporting arena beside a swimming pool or a gymnastic floor, would you seriously have any of this crowd above Linford Christie? Thought not, best take Coral’s or Bet365’s 14/1 now.

The Jump 2016 starts on January 26th on Channel 4.

Patriots now look under-priced with Denver in their way next

Here, back in May, I wrote a piece about the New England Patriots highlighting the defending Superbowl champions had to be value at 9/1 to retain the title in 2016.

Victorious in 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2015 the Patriots were beaten finalists in 2008, 2012.   Now they appear to be on the verge of another appearance in the final, staged this year in California.

Alas, I confess to having not backed my judgement and whilst I would have been on a ‘win-win’ having traded my stakes out once the Patriots went into 4/1, I’m not convinced they will overcome Denver this week.  Certainly, at the prices and on the stats, you have to back Denver this weekend.

Lost by half the track!

I clearly picked a bad time to abandon Aksel Lund Svindall last weekend.  In mitigation our selection, Hannes Reichelt, finished just .19sec adrift of his rival in second place and this pair were a veritable country mile behind the remainder of the field (1.5sec) in the Men’s Downhill.

What really hurt was the intervention of the weather which saw the top half of the Wengen course omitted – it completely changed the complexion of the race and, I believe, cost us the victory.

This weekend the action comes from Kitzbuel which is another of skiing’s ‘classic courses’.  I suspect I’ll be supporting Reichelt again albeit without a firm comb through the course form I’ll withhold judgement for now.

A full Kitzbuel preview will be on Betswot on Friday following my homework and the skiers opening training runs.

Paddy a Machine?

Finally Charlie Lister apparently has a new machine in his greyhound training academy.  With the victories of Some Picture (1997),  Rapid Ranger (2000 & 2001), Farloe Verdict (2003), Bandicoot Tipoki (2010), Taylors Sky (2011) and Sidaz Jack (2013) the Nottinghamshire-based trainer has won the Greyhound Derby seven times.

Youtube ‘Cloran Paddy’ and watch his victory in a Sheffield Puppy Open last week and you may agree.  Then again you may argue he was only beating trees and the time was poor.

This Week’s Recommended Bets:

Denver to beat the Patriots at 6/4 with William Hill

Linford Christie to win ‘The Jump’  at 14/1 with Coral and Bet365

George Miller (Best Director Oscar)  at 5/1 with 888Sport