Roy The Boy blog with bets advised on the Dafabet Masters Snooker which starts on Sunday and early thoughts on Celebrity Big Brother and Geordie Shore link.
Timlin’s Geordie Shore connection sees him start 2/1 Big Bro fav
Celebrity Big Brother 17 gets underway this week and, unsurprisingly, when the name of a cast member from Geordie Shore was leaked to the press as a contestant in the show his price was smashed-up.
Scott Timlin, who does little more than boast about the size of his trouser snake in Geordie Shore, starts the CBB series as the 2/1 favourite having been available at 12/1 when his participation was first mooted during the third week of December. Just days ago Ladbrokes were going 8’s.
The connection between Geordie Shore cast members and their success in shows such as Big Brother has been well mooted in this column. And, with MTV (broadcasters of Geordie Shore) and Channel 5 entering an agreement which sees the show broadcast on both platforms, Timlin’s case looks stronger than oak. Would I recommend backing him at 2/1 however? Not in a million years.
It is noteworthy that Power’s, SkyBet, Boyles, Coral and Winner.com are offering each-way terms of 1/5th of the odds 1-2-3 and if that is still available after a the first week of the show some of the quieter characters – who are probably playing the long-game – could be worthy of some interest bets at big prices.
Ronnie on a Rocket to Nowhere?
The DafaBet Masters Snooker starts this Sunday at 1pm, with defending Champion Shaun Murphy cueing off against Mark Allen.
This tournament, restricted to the top 16 in the sport, sees the return of Ronnie O’Sullivan after seven months on the side-lines. Just how he will perform is a total mystery. At his very best he would eat his rivals, none of which are at the top of their game, for breakfast.
His fans must be concerned that he is friendless in the betting though. ‘The Rocket’ was as short as 11/4 when the draw was made public; he can now be backed at 9/2 with Sportingbet. However he is getting a run out this week in the short format shootout event.
The one player I cannot have, with the benefit of recent form, is the seventh favourite Ding Junhui. I don’t think he will even survive his opening round encounter against Stuart Bingham.
Junhui’s best was over two years ago now and, by my reckoning, he has been eliminated in the first round of eight of the 15 tournaments he has played since the start of the 2014/15 season. What’s more he has also lost out in the qualifying stages of three other competitions: The Wuxi Classic, German Masters and International Championship.
Last month Junhui was defeated 6-2 by amateur Adam Duffy in the opening round of the UK Championship. Seriously now, how can he be even-money against the current World Champion, Stuart Bingham, in Sunday evening’s match-up? Bingham is a strong bet here with Coral.
100 Even on Stats
Beforehand I’m expecting at least one century break in the Murphy/Allen game.
The opening round of the Masters is a best-of-11 frame encounter and realistically we can expect nine or ten frames to be played in this match.
My stats, in addition to showing Murphy holds an 11-4 lead over Allen from the 15 times they have met, tell me they have also played 113 frames. The net result of all that play is a sum total of 13 century+ breaks.
Their last four meetings, the final 16 of the German Masters, the semi-final of last year’s Masters and the semi-final of the 2014 World Open, saw score lines of 5-4, 6-2 and 6-4 (all in Murphy’s favour) with exactly one century+ break scored in each match.
Everything points to one, and just one, century break on Sunday meaning Bet365’s 7/4 about such an occurrence looks like a very much over-priced proposition.
Masters Snooker 1pm Sunday
1 point win Shaun Murphy vs Mark Allen game to have a single 100+ break at 7/4 with Bet365
Masters Snooker 7pm Sunday
2 points win Stuart Bingham to beat Ding Junhui at 1/1 with Coral