Blog – Lady Aurelia for Breeders Cup – Vettel in US G Prix

Roy The Boy blog looking back on a great 33/1 World Grand Prix Darts winner and with bets on the Breeders Cup and US Grand Prix

A period of uncertainty ahead in Darts?

Hoy hoy, nothing like a 33/1 winner to lift the spirits and that’s what Daryl Gurney delivered for us in a bruising final encounter at Grand Prix Darts this past weekend.

I’m not sure if the Northern Irishman will win another darting major but I’m starting to feel confident the game is entering a new phase whereby it will not be dominated by just one or two players.  That’s how snooker was during the Davis, Hendry and O’Sullivan eras but in the last five or six years any one of 16 players can and do win tournaments.

Ezra headline act at Ascot

British Champions Day is just over a week away. I don’t like these end of season showdowns, many horses are over the top and the ground can come up dire.  But there will doubtlessly be a healthy race day crowd at Ascot, primarily to watch George Ezra perform after racing.

The 24-year-old has already played the Isle of Wight Festival in 2017 as well as Glastonbury.  It makes me wonder how officials at the royal racecourse will feel about the dress code of the average George Ezra fan.

Anyway, good luck to you if you are having a bet.  I’ve promised to curtail my horse racing bets moving forwards.  I’ve lost fortunes down the years and that’s despite knocking off some sizeable ante-post touches.  In fact, ante-post will be my only horse racing activities henceforth – hopefully.

Cup Week

The Breeders Cup and Melbourne Cup meetings are only three days apart so doubling up horses in both is viable (nothing worse than watching one win and the second selection withdrawn from the race you have backed it in three weeks later).

Our 20/1 Melbourne Cup selection, Almandin, is currently the top-priced 13/2 favourite.  This initially shocked me as he was beaten into fourth at Flemington over the weekend.  But one Australian scribe has since written an informative piece explaining how he must be forgiven for his defeat (at 6/5) blaming the pace of the race.  His article is supported by a stack of technical data in regards to sectional times.  In short, I hope he is right!

No Luck needed for Lady over Five

As for the Breeders Cup… My initial though about Lady Aurelia at 11/8 for the ‘Turf Sprint’ was lay her for everything you can get your hands on.  She will never get 6½ furlongs!

But close examination shows this year’s Sprint will be run over 5 furlongs as the venue for the Breeders Cup meeting has been switched to Del Mar from Santa Anita.  This makes her a completely different proposition, she’s custom made for some sharp turns and a short run-in isn’t she?  Or would you prefer to be on her in a straight-line at somewhere like York?

The European champion two-year-old is reportedly “in fine shape”, she will ‘ship’ to Del Mar on October 22nd and John Valazquez will ride her.

Vettel’s is too big at 5/2

Lewis Hamilton also did the biz for us at the weekend.  His cause was helped by Sebastian Vettel being forced to start the race (and retire from the race) with a faulty spark-plug.  It’s unquestionably been a catastrophic six weeks for the Italian team.

But the bookmakers have over reacted by making Hamilton odds-on for the next race in Texas, and Vettel as big as 5/2.  Once again the time to get the value is now, long before a practice session starts.

Vettel should be 6/4 for this race at this venue.  He may have won in the U.S. just once in the past but he has claimed two pole positions and set four fastest laps at the venue.  Hamilton has won all four of the remaining races which have been staged since the Circuit of the Americas opened in 2012 (only one came from pole-position).  But, given the current spec cars, I’d be amazed if he will have a defined advantage over his key rivals a week on Sunday.

This week’s best bets

Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint:               Lady Aurelia              11/8    Boyles or Betfair

US Grand Prix:                                  Sebastian Vettel       5/2       William Hill

William Hill

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