Blog – Breeders Cup, X Factor, Lewis Hamilton & Tim Sherwood

Weekly blog from Roy The Boy looking at the Formula 1 drivers title, Tim Sherwood sacking, The Breeders Cup and the first X Factor elimination.

Lewis Delivers the Goods Again

Congratulations to Lewis Hamilton who landed back-to-back World Drivers’ Championship titles at the weekend.

Despite having given us a boring spectacle in each of its previous three Grand Prix the Texan ‘Circuit of the Americas’ finally delivered a thrilling spectacle courtesy of a rain sodden track which brought no end of accidents and incidents.

It was one of my most costly F1 races ever and one that is going to remain hard to swallow as the ‘big scoop’, which was Rosberg to win the race, was done at 1.15 in running.  Somehow he managed to get beaten.

‘Capgate’, Rosberg’s throwing his proverbial and metaphorical toys out of his pram and at Lewis Hamilton followed.  It was great TV entertainment albeit more costly than I would ideally liked to have paid to witness.

At the start of the race weekend Hamilton was a general 8/1 to win back-to-back Sports Personality of the Year titles – it has never been done before – and 1/250 to win the World Title.

On conversion of the necessary 1/250 part of the double his price for SPOTY is now as low as 9/2 (with Coral).  Madness, sheer madness.  It is the same stampede mentality that saw AP McCoy become the 9/4 favourite for the SPOTY accolade when he announced his retirement.

Bye Bye Tim

I see Tim Sherwood has lost his job as Aston Villa manager.  Funny old game that football; I mean how many racehorse trainers get sacked for having slow horses?  Have bad players and, in football, you are unemployed.  Is that the way it works?

He will still hold a special place in my heart as I backed him to get that job at 20/1 with Paddy Power for all they would accommodate …relatively it wasn’t much!

I’ve actually spent a lot of time at PaddyPower’s and Betfair’s websites recently.  If the duo do come together in the mooted merger and they put these two sites together instead of running them both independently, I think the net result will be a product that will stand head and shoulders above all others.

Thrown in some governmental intervention into the areas of minimum bet acceptance on advertised prices in all sporting genres and boom, we will have more people betting than ever.

More punters means more bets, more bets means more profits and more profits means more tax. I do hope someone is listening, or reading.

JG’s Golden in the BC Turf?

Its Breeders’ Cup weekend which is always a punting feast although I’m not sure how highly it now ranks amongst the major race meetings on the world stage.

All European eyes will be on Golden Horn who attempts to top-up his Derby, Eclipse and Arc wins with victory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.  In all fairness it looks his easiest assignment of the year by some way with 12lb in hand of second favourite, Found, who looks overly rated anyway.

Aidan O’Brien’s Found has won a single race from her seven outings in 2015 and that was an egg-and-spoon three-runner Group 3 on the Curragh in August.  At 4/1 she rates a monumental lay.

I hope the John Gosden trained runner does the job with ease, although I’d not discount a Dancing Brave-type faux-pas.  Who can forget (or remember) the 1986 Arc winner failing to make the frame in the Breeders’ Cup Turf when looking an equally ‘good thing’.

My bet of the weekend comes in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.  With my passion for a repeat winner, especially in this race where Goldikova (2008, 2009 & 2010) and Wise Dan (2012 & 2013) have won this race more than once, you may be expecting me to move all-in with 2014 BC Mile victor Karakontie.  Wrong!

Then there is Mondialiste, the former French runner who I backed to win the Lincoln handicap at 25/1 in the spring on his first start for David O’Meara.  Of course he got touched off there but he later won at Pontefract starting a sequence that saw him, last time, claim a Grade 1 in Woodbine, Canada.  Nope, not this one either despite the attractive 16/1 odds.

My pin, pen and money have circled and landed on Andre Fabre’s Make Believe.  The lightly-raced three-year-old who has won four of his six career starts including a pair Group 1’s, most recently Prix de La Foret on Arc day.

Put a line through his fifth of five behind Gleneagles at Royal Ascot – form simply too bad to be true – and this grandson of My Branch (placed in the 1000 Guineas) would be considerably shorter in the betting.

As it stands William Hill is the place to shop as they are going top-priced 9/2 about this improving sort.

Which X is Next?

X-Factor is down to 12 contestants and live shows which will see a contestant eliminated every week.  With Bupsi trading at 100/1 for the competition Ladbrokes have made the mistake of presuming she is going to be the first eliminated. They go 5/4 about her exiting next.

This show does not work like this, plain and simple.  History shows again and again that the next five or six eliminated contestants will most probably not be those considered the most obvious ‘go home’ candidates.

Although that 5/4 cannot be laid, with Coral’s and Bwin also pricing-up the next/first elimination there is plenty of opportunities to make a buck.  This is underlined by Max Stone being 11/4 with Bwin but 7/1 with Ladbrokes and Mason Noise, available at 8/1 with Bwin, but only 9/2 with Coral’s and Ladbrokes.