Blog – Betting Reflections, Chinese Grand Prix, Grand National

Roy The Boy blog where he reflects on an excellent week of betting, likes Vettel in Chinese Grand Prix and Cause of Causes in the Grand National.

It’s been a great seven days on the punting front

Raymond van Barneveld comprehensively mullered Michael van Gerwen in the 180’s stakes in last Thursday’s Premier League 180’s race (a 2/1 recommendation) and there was also another 156 check-out on the night.  I maintain you should take all the 5/6 you can get every about a 151.5+ check-out every Thursday/Premier League night.

And then Sebastian Vettel won like a good thing in the Australian Grand Prix.  I’m on him ante-post for the Championship outright and fancied the German more than ever (for the race) after he qualified second on the grid, just 0.2sec behind Lewis Hamilton in the race.

I’m now convinced this will be a theme during the coming months, Hamilton having the faster qualifying car (and qualifying on pole aplenty) but Vettel’s Ferrari being superior during the ensuing race.

This scenario will throw open all sorts of opportunities and laying the popular ‘pole setter to win the race’ and ‘pole, race winner and fastest lap’ combination bets is going to be an angle.

The next race is in China which every kind of judge is keen to point out has a very different configuration.  While Australia is the conventional seasonal curtain raiser (has been for ten of the last 11 years), China has never followed immediately after it.  China has been the third or fourth race on the calendar for the past eight years.

In 2016 Nico Rosberg did the Australian/China double, in fact he won the first four races of the season.  In 2015 Hamilton did the Australian/China double (in winning three of the season’s first four races).  2014 saw Hamilton retire from the Australian GP (after qualifying on pole) with a lost cylinder but he did win in China amongst a sequence of four consecutive race victories.

In short a comprehensive winner in Australia invariably goes on to frank the form in China and for several more races to come.  As former driver Martin Brundle recently wrote: “In my experience good cars are good cars all season long and at all types of circuit.”  I respect his judgment above all others.

Anyways, I’m not overly sold on the ‘very different track’ theory.  Both are classified as ‘high downforce’ circuits and they both require ‘full-throttle’ about 56-61% of the time.  The only difference is the longest straight, which is 843 metres in Melbourne and 1,397 metres in China.  I’m far from convinced that is going to spoil Ferrari’s party in any way.

And so, as I type this, I’m 30,000ft in the air inbound to Innsbruck to win a poker tournament and pretty intent on collecting at least €20k, I’m already planning to plonk the lot on Vettel to win the Chinese Grand Prix at 6/4 with anyone that will take the bet.  Why not? I’ve every reason to think the team has a lot more in the proverbial tank and believe Vettel should surely be trading as a 4/9 shot.

Knocking on the Big Pay Day Door

The next month is going to be wonderful, of that I am convinced.  But, as good as it was, last week could have been better too.  I had a sizeable wager on Jolyon Palmer to be the first retirement in Melbourne and got within a lap of collecting on that 14/1 poke.  And Daniel Ricciardo retired before I got a chance of collecting on himself setting the fastest lap of the race.

To be fair, in hindsight, it is doubtful he would have delivered the accolade for me and it is noteworthy the race’s fastest lap changed hands four times during the final four laps of the Australian Grand Prix.  In fact, with the 2017 tyres looking far more robust than their 2016 counterparts it’s hard to envisage many ‘DHL Fastest Lap’ awards going to cars outside the recognised ‘big six’.

I’ve had some near misses these past seven days alright.  The first five legs up on a £400+ Placepot for which I was clutching a £20 line and I was all over the three runners from the Stack stables (remembering Fozzy has taken over from his father Tommy this year) on the opening day of the Irish flat season in Naas.

Doubled and trebled-up I was a third of the way to a quarter-million Euro pay-day when one of his three horses scored; alas it wasn’t meant to be.  Just one more winner would have given me a five-figure return but his other two runners were unplaced.

No Spring Double

The Grand National is almost upon us of course, in decades gone by there used to be a real buzzy expression called the ‘Spring Double’ which amounted to finding the winners of the Grand National and the Lincoln.  That impossible jigsaw seems to have been consigned to the history books and, naturally, it is best trying to find the winners of each race individually.

In the National I’d like to see ‘One For Arthur’ prevail purely because it would give Scotland its first winner since Rubstic in 1979.  But I’m never going to forget winning six figures on ‘Silverbirch’ in the 2007 Grand National.  This was the horse which gave Gordon Elliot his first ever winner as a trainer and he lined up in the National following a run in the Cross Country race at the Cheltenham Festival.

Ten years hence Elliot is sending ‘Cause of Causes’ to Aintree following victory in the very same Cross Country Chase (he was also a Festival winner over 4-miles I 2015) meaning the JP McManus horse will get my 2017 fun bet - placed at Bet365, Stan James or Paddy Power as they are doing the decent thing in offering ‘non-runner no-bet’ terms.

Recommended Bet:

Sebastian Vettel                   to win the Chinese Grand Prix at 13/8 with Skybet

Cause of Causes                 to win the Grand National at 14/1 (NR/NB) with Betfred