Bet365 Gold Cup preview – Missed Approach well overpriced

Ceebee previews the Bet365 and he has strong selection with the Kim Muir winner Missed Approach at 12/1.

There are 11 horses currently priced at less than 20/1 for the Bet365 Gold Cup on Saturday 28th April.

6 of the 11 are engaged to run in the Scottish National 7 days beforehand.

Four more of the 20/1 shots are also in at Ayr. It’s fair to assume none of them will run twice (baring an early mishap perhaps) so this market will cut up significantly over the next week. Based on averages from the last three years; on the day there will be roughly 10 horses priced below 20/1 and 4 of them will be single figures. I usually don’t take much convincing to get involved early but those figures are certainly more than enough.

Let’s eliminate the ones we don’t like first….

Blaklion I don’t believe is good enough to win a big handicap off 161. That’s G1 stuff.

Shantou Flyer, Cheltenham and ¾’s of the National is enough spring racing for him.

Alpha des Obeaux took a bad fall in the GN and he isn’t the force of old. Neither is Saphir du Rheu. He has been poor this season and the handicapper hasn’t given him a chance either.

Yala Enki needs the Haydock mud.

Ms Parfois has done enough racing this season for a 7yo, they really should keep her for next year especially if the ground dries up.

Houblon des Obeaux’s winter ground is gone.

West Approach doesn’t look to be a natural jumper so Sandown will find him out.

Thunder and Roses is done.

Domesday Brook has been off for 400 days.

Wakanda has been very poor the last twice.

Calett Mad has raced over hurdles all season.

Virgilio hasn’t run well in 12mts but is still higher than his last winning mark.

Present Man was poor in this last year, 5lbs higher now and coming in off a bad prep run.

Captain Chaos has been well beat the three time he has faced decent opposition this season. It’s this race 2yrs ago since Southfield Theatre ran well. Amazed if he’s not declared with a wind-op. Carole’s Destrier is similar, you’ve to go back to the 2016 Hennessy.

Warrior’s Tale, Seeyouatmidnight, Vieux Lion Rouge, Ucello Conti and Pendra all finished, or got 90% around, the National course. Just 14 days ago it’s hard to imagine them being at their best here.

Beware the Bear, Gold Present, Vicente, Ballyoptic, Sizing Tennesse, Regal Flow, Vintage Clouds, Benbens, Henri Parry Morgan, Label des Obeaux, Guitar Pete, Cogry, Doing Fine, Indy Five, Looking Well and Braqueur D’Or are all expected to run at Ayr. Making them unlikely to run here.

Now we’ve scratched 40 of the first 51 entries, that’s enough. I’m not going to go through the other 11 as the selection is an obvious one.

Missed Approach is going off 7/1 fav for this and he’s currently 12/1. He was a tough winner of the Kim Muir last time. Mall Dini pushed him hard and Squaouteur ran well in third also. All three were well clear of the rest. Both of those Irish horses had a few lbs in hand and were targeting the Kim Muir all season. He’s gone up 8lbs for it but I think that’s more than fair. In the days leading up to the Festival I actually thought the Kim Muir was a better race than the Ultima and it could well turn out that way.

The rise takes him to 146 (from 138) but interestingly he was running off 148 12mts ago. That mark was as a result of chasing home Tiger Roll in the 4miler. That form just got a boost some 13mts later. That run also suggests the step up to 3m5f from 3m2f will be of no hindrance at all and that he’ll handle decent ground.

Advised Bet:

2pts e/w Missed Approach at 12/1 with Boylesports and 888Sport

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