Roy the Boy's blog looks forward to The Preakness Stakes and back at being too greedy in greyhound racing.
Quip in Preakness, no joke
It’s the second leg of America’s Triple Crown, the Preakness, this weekend. On face value it is very hard to oppose Kentucky Derby winner Justify. If you want to back him at a top-priced 4/9 go ahead and do so. But if you want an interest bet with the prospect of winning some real money, I strongly suggest an each-way play on Quip at 20/1.
Unlike those higher in the betting, Quip did not run in the gruelling Kentucky Derby and will come here fresh. Indeed, his last race was in the Arkansas Derby (April 15th) where he finished second. Before that he landed the Tampa Bay Derby in mid-March.
Statistically Quip has a lot to do as, since 1984, only four horses have won the Preakness without running in the Kentucky Derby. Similarly ten of the last twenty-one Kentucky Derby winners have won the Preakness.
Should ‘Justify’ justify his short price in the Preakness, he will go to Belmont as an odds-on shot and that is when you really want to oppose him. Just one of those ten horses which won the Derby and Preakness went on to win the Belmont. And it is not just stats that’s against Justify. Trainer Todd Pletcher is not running his luckless Kentucky Derby third, Audible, or any of his other three Derby runners in the Preakness. All four are on course for the Belmont on June 9th where they will line-up considerably fresher than the potential Triple Crown chasing Justify.
Greed is bad
Greyhound Grand National winner Parkers Dynamite is still very much a novice and when he made his Hove debut during the week, I made him a massive ‘lay’. The Hove hurdles are far more imposing than those found at other tracks and I could/did easily envisage him ballooning them. As an added kicker the dog had never even been around the track before.
And then there was the opposition. Plotted-up in the striped vest was Razldazl Raidio. The 2016 Champion Hurdle / 2017 National winner has started odds-on favourite in all but two of his sixty-six UK hurdle starts and his win ratio is in excess of two-from-three.
What’s a man to do?
Back the Raidio to win at 4/5? Nah.
Have four forecasts Raidio to beat the ‘kippers’ who are all priced 12/1+? Nah.
Play the tricasts permutations, the 4/5 fancy followed home by two double-digits runners to scoop a super-bazooka? Yep, I went for the third option and when the Raidio beat 33/1 Young Columbus, I said goodbye to a £39 forecast as Parkers Dynamite pinched third.
Pukeworthy, but that’s greed for you.
Preakness Stakes: Quip @ 20/1 with Paddy Power