Baseball – Houston Astros look 22/1 ALCS value

Shane Lambert looks at the revival from the Houston Astros and he likes their chances in American League West and especially 22/1 about the ALCS title.

The Houston Astros entered the 2016 season as the favourites to win the AL West. Things haven't shaped up like that so far as the Astros are seven games back of the Texas Rangers heading into Monday action. However, Houston have come on strong of late and they might be looking at making a charge in the standings.

Over the last 30 games Houston have gone 18-12 for a .600 winning percentage that will help them fade their poor start to the 2016 season. They have two players that are really having a standout year in both George Springer and Jose Altuve. Springer's OPS through 58 games is .882, which is an improvement on already strong numbers from the previous two seasons. Altuve has an OPS of .951 so far, making the start of the Astros' order tough to pitch around.

For betting odds, I felt that the Astros were priced short to start the season at 3/2 to win their division. However, they've drifted out to 10/1 with Coral and, since they are showing some life, those odds are starting to look interesting. The tough part with the betting line is that Texas aren't exactly giving up ground even as Houston improve their record.

That said, I don't totally mind 10/1 on Houston to win their division. Also there is a betting angle on this team that involves the current 'back door' into the post-season. Even if the 'stros don't make up all the ground in the divisional race, should they keep playing .600 baseball then they stand a good chance in the Wild Card race. That in turn would give them a chance to factor into the divisional series and the NLCS.

Ladbrokes have the Astros way out at 22/1, odds that appear to under-rate Houston. As a contrast bet365 have the same line at 12/1.

Houston are looking like a team that didn't really have things together out of gates, however they've been playing strong now for over a month. I think they are far more likely to keep that up then they are to go back to their previous poor form. If they gain a couple games on Texas, I'd be looking for at least 8/1 in the divisional race, odds that may be available. Right now, 22/1 is good to go in the ALCS market for this playoff-experienced team that appears to have lost some believers due to a poor start.

Recommendation:

2 point wins Houston to win the ALCS at 22/1 with Ladbrokes

Twitter