Verstappen an unlikely finisher in Baku Grand Prix

Roy The Boy previews the Baku Grand Prix in Azerbajan and he banking on Max Verstappen displaying some typically errant driving.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix Betting Guide

Lay ‘em all in Baku

The temperatures have risen and the chance of rain has diminished.  There are strong winds forecast but, as a street circuit, this should not have too much bearing on the outcome of the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku.

Despite this favourable weather forecast, it is safe to say there will be plenty of carnage in Sunday’s race and the appearance of a Safety Car looks inevitable. That’s because this is, for my two-penneth, the best F1 circuit of them all.  It has a massive straight and loads of 90 degree corners.  It is remarkably narrow in places and it provokes outrageous overtaking manoeuvres and inevitable contact.

So this venue makes this race a layers playground.  Back nothing, it is fraught with danger.  Only 13 cars completed the race last year (although 14 were officially ‘classified’) and on that basis alone supporting Hamilton at 11/10 or Vettel at 2/1 is foolhardy.   Ricciardo won this race last year despite starting tenth on the grid.  If memory serves, he was available at 80’s at ‘lights out’.

While tempted to lay out a whole smorgasbord of betting suggestions, such as backing a Safety Car (a 2/7 shot), selling the number of finishers, backing the first car/driver retirement etc, I’m recommending just one based on, I believe, the price being greater than probability.

Max value from Max DNF

Max Verstappen is errant, there is no other way of describing him. He hit Sebastian Vettel in China last time and went off track to snatch third in the US Grand Prix late last year. It resulted in a post-race time penalty and a demotion, it could have easily led to a mid-race crash.

The Dutch driver’s never-say-die antics are exaggerated at street circuits and he has only finished the Monaco Grand Prix once, crashing out twice.  Added to his over exuberance, you cannot get over the unreliability of his car.  It has failed to finish in eight of its last 21 outings including in this race last year.

Given 35 percent of starters are unlikely to be classified as a finisher and adding all the factor’s above, 10/3 about him not completing is huge and the only bet to have on this weekend’s race at this stage.

Recommended Bet

Max Verstappen to NOT be a classified Baku GP finisher       10/3    William Hill

 

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