Tweener looks at Day 4 of the Australian Open Mens Singles and he likes unders in Milos Raonic v Tommy Robredo and overs in David Ferrer v Leyton Hewitt.
Milos Raonic v TommyRobredo
2 points under 31.5 Games at 5/6 with Paddy Power
- One of the good things about betting on players like Robredo is you know what you are going to get to. There are no potential upside or downside to his game that you haven’t seen. One of his biggest weaknesses is his record v big servers; he had a terrible h2h v Roddick and has a similar poor record v Raonic. He has played 5 and lost 5 v Milos, including 2 matches on clay which is Robredo best surface.
- Milos has been playing well this year; the normal problem of his poor returning would normally be of concern, but he seems to have improved in this department. The last 2 hardcourt matches between these 2 were 6-1, 6-2 and a 6-3, 6-2, I expect a similar score line, perhaps 1 tight tie break set and it should be plain sailing for Milos.
- Milos also has been in good form this year; he won Brisbane and lost a final in the first week. Furthermore Robredo lost to Troicki 6-1, 6-4 last week, another big server.
- Negative - A tie break set can be a lottery and if it goes Robredo way, this bet will not win.
David Ferrer v Leyton Hewitt:
1 point win Over 35.5 total games at 17/20 with Betfair Sports, 5/6 with Betfred
- 2 season campaigners who know all about each other. Ferrer should win, but Hewitt will drag him into a dogfight; that’s why I like this overs bet. They have played each other 3 times all in Slams, every single match has covered this mark and I expect something similar tonight.
- Admittedly, Hewitt isn’t the player he was, but Ferrer has not started this season too well himself. With the home crowd support and huge motivation, I can see Hewitt going quite close in this and go out all guns blazing.