Australian Open 2016 Outright Bets

Tweener takes a look at the outright markets for the Australian Open tennis and strongly fancies Djokoivc while Kerber and Kuznetsova look to be the value in the ladies.

Men Outright 

Advised Bet

2 points win Novak Djokovic win at 8/11  with Paddy Power and Betfair Sports

No one can beat him bar Stan Wawrinka, but on hard, Stan chances are more remote.  There are question marks over all his rivals.

  • Rafa is just a top 10 player.
  • The court not quick enough for Federer.
  • Murray has got a terrible h2h and needs to improve 2nd serve.
  • Kei Nishikori isn’t in the form he was.
  •  Berdych is not good enough. #
  • Milos Raonic probably needs a quicker court.

If a bet at bigger odds is what you are looking for Stan is the pick, but 14-1 isn’t exactly great. We might as well back the best player in the draw who is very hard to beat bar illness etc.

Women Outright 

Advised Bets:

0.5 points each way Angelique Kerber at 28-1 with Betfred, Stan James and Bet365

0.5 points each way Svetlana Kuznetsova at 100/1 with Betfred, Bet365 and Coral

1 point Tamira Paszek to win her quarter at 100/1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power

There are question marks over nearly every player at the top of the market bar Azarenka. It wouldn’t surprise me if Serena, Kvitova and Sharapova are knocked out in the first round due to a lack of matches. However, if Sharapova progress through the 1st few rounds, she will be very dangerous, since there were enough signs at the end of last year that she will be peaking soon.

The most solid players in the draw are Azarenka and Kerber. Unfortunately, they are in the same quarter of the draw. The way Azarenka destroyed Kerber makes it hard to tip up Kerber. However, the price is the deciding factor here. If Kerber beats Azarenka, she should have nothing to worry about until the final.

The bottom quarter is the weakest and it’s about time Pliskova goes deep in a Slam,;she failed to perform in all 4 slams last year and this is a great opportunity for her to maximise ranking points and go on a deep run.  Her main problem is her defence and lack of game B, unless that is resolved or if she develops a bigger game Kvitova style, she will continue to reach the very top of the game.

With the question marks over many of the top players, I have also picked Kuznetsova at a big price each way.  Her form has been decent of late; in fact, I was convinced she would have gone very deep in the French Open last year, had she not choked and lost to an inspired Schiavone.  The pedigree is there, the game is there, she should be in for a deep run provided she doesn’t have an off day.  Although, her best surface is arguably on the clay, she has won a US Open.

I also fancy Tamira Paszek to go deep in her quarter.  She has been in good form of late and having looked at the draw, there are not many players she should fear.  She would struggle against a powerful Kvitova type of player but none of them are in her side.  Obviously Radwanska will be tricky but this is off set by the price.