Odds compilers have priced up the possibility of a Safety Car being used in Sunday’s Chinese GP based purely on recent historical results. They show it has been rolled-out in each and every one of the last four renditions of this race. However, the stats are deceiving.
Firstly the lifetime stat at this circuit shows it has been called for just six times from fifteen races and we know the advent of the ‘virtual safety car’ has lessened the use of the real thing. More importantly, twice in the past four years the safety car has only been needed because of small amounts of debris being left on the circuit.
Everything considered 6/4 about it not being used on Sunday is a knockout bet.
This predicted lack of accident or incident should mean very few non finishers apart from those that suffer a ‘mechanical’. And they don’t happen very often here either. In fact in 2018 and 2016 every car that set out completed the race distance. In 2011 and 2012 there was just one DNF, and only two in 2014.
No Safety Car @ 6/4 generally