Blog – SPOTY, Darts and Samcro for Supreme Novices

Roy The Boy blog with a bet on Samcro in the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

BBC decide on our Overseas 6 and the Daily Express prices it up for us

The BBC have announced a shortlisted list of six contenders for ‘Overseas Sports Personality of the Year’.  There is absolutely no information available whatsoever about who devised this ‘shortlist’ which, in itself makes the thing complete bollix.

Anyway, the six options the BBC are giving voters are: NFL’s Tom Brady, Roger Federer (Tennis), Katie Ledecky (Swimming), Tatyana McFadden (Para-athletics), Sally Pearson (Athletics) and Michael van Gerwen (Darts).

According to the Daily Express newspaper Roger Federer is the ‘favourite’ which is kind of weird as I’ve trawled through 30+ of the best known UK/Ire facing sites and found no prices on the award anywhere.  Maybe they made that bit up.

Despite what the Express thinks and who the BBC has decided are the six leading candidates for “the overseas athlete who has made the most substantial contribution to sport this year,” this one could well go to a ‘kipper’.

Taking a look at the previous winners, listed here:

2016               Simone Biles                        Gymnastics

2015               Dan Carter                            Rugby Union

2014               Christiano Ronaldo             Football

2013               Sebastian Vettel                   F1

2012               Usain Bolt                             Athletics

2011               Novak Djokovic                    Tennis

2010               Rafael Nadal                         Tennis

2009               Usain Bolt                             Athletics

2008               Usain Bolt                             Athletics

2007               Roger Federer                      Tennis

2006               Roger Federer                      Tennis

2005               Shayne Warne                     Cricket

2004               Roger Federer                      Tennis

…you to think it is a done deal and the Daily Express sportsbook has priced it up correctly but, as of 2015, the voting criteria for this ‘award’ changed dramatically and no longer was it in the hands of 30 sporting journalists with their pre-conceived ideas and penchant for tennis.

Nowadays the winner amongst the ‘appointed six’ is decided by viewers vote. And to place that you need to open a BBC account.  Net result is a very small pool of votes and winners such as, errr, em, Simone Biles.

Voting lines for this one close at midnight on Friday, 8 December, and the winner will be announced (on the BBC Sport website before the main Sports Personality show) on BBC One on 17 December.

So if you can get a lay bet on Federer sometime before December 8th I suggest doing so. 

Can you find one to beat MVG?

Michael van Gerwen seems to have forgotten his form should be whirling its way around the toilet. He won Sunday’s Player’s Championship with consummate ease and is now nicely set-up for an attempt at winning his third World Championship.

The Dutchman is odd-on across the boards for the big one, which starts on December 14 and runs through the Christmas period concluding on January 1.  But as much as it is hard to see him beaten, he managed to beat himself in 2015 and 2016.

The provisional draw for the 2017 event sees him in the same bracket as countryman Raymond van Barneveld (ranked 9).  The second bracket features Daryl Gurney (4) and Mensur Suljovic (5), Peter Wright (2) and Adrian Lewis (7) are the headline acts in the third bracket while the retiring Phil Taylor (6) has Gary Anderson (3) to contend with.

The big success story of 2017, Rob Cross (20), is in the second bracket. Trading as low as 9/1, he is one of just five players priced under 33/1.

Outside of 180’s match-up markets darts have not worked out too well for me in recent times so I’ll keep a watching brief for now.

Where’s the Olympic betting?

There’s less than 75 days until the Winter Olympics get underway and I’m amazed how few betting markets there are on offer for what should be a mini-feast for online bookmakers who accept bets from alpine sports mad countries like Austria, Germany and Italy.  I’d love to be building an ante-post acca right now with Mikaela Shiffrin, in the ladies slalom, acting as a banker. Even-money would do nicely!

Remarkably Biathlete Ole Einar Bjørndalen will be competing at 2018 Olympics. It will be his seventh consecutive Olympic Games.  He has won a hatful of medals at the last five Games and he is the most decorated Olympian in the history of the Winter Olympics with 13 medals (8 golds).

At the age of 44 could the Norwegian win another Gold medal at the Winter Olympics?  I’d not bet against it but record breaking Olympian or not, I’d give you any price you want about the BBC’s secret service giving him an Overseas Sports Personality Award shortlisting in 2018.  …Jays I’m clearly in bad form today.

Samcro can scare all in the Supreme

Samcro, who cost £335,000 at the sales is now 5/2 favourite for the Ballymore Properties Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  The race was known as the Neptune Investment Management Hurdle last year and worth £71,000 to the winner.

The 2m-5f contest has had lots of names down the years and some exceptional winners too.  Amongst those is Faugheen who took the race in 2014. That great horse is sired by ‘Germany’ as is Samcro.

Of course Faugheen has some real toe and has only raced beyond two-miles once since winning the ‘Neptune’ in 2014.  Given that obvious speed the sire passes on and the stature of the Supreme Novice Hurdle, I’m not convinced Samcro’s egotistical owner will not opt for that race ahead of the Ballymore/Neptune.

At the prices surely the 16/1 about Samcro for the Supreme is more appealing than the 5/2 for the 2m-5f race,

Recommended Bets

Samcro                      Supreme Novice Hurdle  at 16/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power