Most Receiving Yards – Tate and Baldwin are value bets

Jimmy McGinty looks at the ante post market for most receiving yards and he has two each way bets at 50/1.

Most Regular Season Receiving Yards

TY Hilton topped this statistic with 1,448yds in 2016. He had finished 16th on the same table in 2015. So there’s no reason last year’s 15th man – Golden Tate – can’t improve as far as the top. Tate like TY has a gun-slinging quarterback leading the offense. Having a below average running game and leaky defense are two more key similarities.

Tate finished as high as 7th in 2014, with 1300yds, despite Calvin Johnson also going over the 1,000yd barrier for the Lions. Tate doesn’t have the same level of competition this season. Marvin Jones will be a solid no.2 but their 3rd receiver Anquin Boldin has retired and tight-end Eric Ebron has missed all of preseason with a hamstring injury. Stafford had 594 attempts (9th in the League) for the Lions last year of which 95 (16%) were in Boldin’s direction. Tate should see an increase in opportunity.

His own displays can improve also. Tate had a very slow start to last season and was even benched for a period after a few weeks. He averaged just 27yds per game over the first five weeks before exploding for an 86yd average over the remainder. Had he started the season at that rate he’d have finished 3rd with just 75yds to make up on TY Hilton at the top of the charts.

Advised Bet:

1pt e/w Golden Tate 50/1 – Coral

Doug Baldwin is the second shot I want to take in this market. He has finished 21st and 11th in the past two seasons as his yardage climbed from 1,069 to 1,128. He still has a bit to go but should keep trending upwards. Russell Wilson was only half fit last term and the Seahawks suffered as a consequence winning just 10 games. I think they’ll be a dominant side again winning 13 games on an easy schedule in 2017.

Other receivers Tyler Lockett (coming back from broken leg) and Paul Richardson (out with AC sprain currently) have shown serious durability issues. The more time they miss the more targets Baldwin will receive.

Advised Bet:

1pt e/w Doug Baldwin 50/1 – Coral

Before moving on to the rest of the market I want to give Terrelle Pryor an honourable mention – if you want a third selection he’s it. A throw first Kirk Cousins offense with doubts around the running back – ideal. The Redskins have lost both Garcon and Jackson who each went for over 1,000yds in 2016 so the opportunity is certainly there. Pryor himself went for over 1,000yds despite working with Cody Kessler, Josh McGown, RG3 and some fella called Kevin Hogan in Cleveland. And that was his first year playing as a wide-receiver. This guy is talented and in a good place to put up some big stats.

Going through last season’s top 10:

Andrew Luck is an injury doubt, without him TY Hilton (16/1) has no chance.

Julio Jones was part of a Falcons offense which may regress a little with Kyle Shanahan now in San Fran.

Beckham (10/1) has the best no.2 receiver he’s ever had in New York now, Brandon Marshall will hurt his target count. Having Eli flinging him the ball won’t help either.

Similar comments apply to Antonio Brown (7/2) with Martavis Bryant reinstated for the Steelers after a drugs ban.

Mike Evans (12/1) was a one man receiving team in Tampa but the additions of DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard will hurt his opportunities. It’s also a run first, strong defense, Tampa side.

Brandin Cooks (20/1) has moved to a very crowded Patriots offense.

Jordy Nelson might be slowing down at 32.

Amari Cooper (33/1) is one that might have a chance having gone over 1,000yds in both his NFL seasons. However Jared Cook and Marshawn Lynch are two additions in Oakland that may limited the opportunities Cooper gets. Derek Carr has yet to truly show he’s a big arm downfield QB.

Michael Thomas (20/1) in New Orleans will have loads of opportunities now that Cooks is in New England. Facing Panthers, Falcons & Bucs twice, along with Vikings & Patriots, won’t make it easy for him though. Jarvis Landry is part of a run first offense which may even see DeVante Parker overtake him as the no.1.

Tight-ends Kelce and Olsen will again go for around 1,000yds but nothing like the 1,400+ needed. AJ Green (10/1) is the best value of the top end of the market however he’s not for me. The addition of Joe Mixon along with the return to fitness of Eifert and Bernard will make the Bengals a better side but they’ll also make it less of a one-man show. The Bengals offensive line is weaker this year which may force Dalton to look for the shorter, easier targets which weren’t available last year.

Neither Demaryius Thomas or Allen Robinson are working with a QB capable of throwing the ball consistently well.

Keenan Allen has a tough schedule facing many strong cornerbacks – and he struggles to stay fit.

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